The year of weird weather continues. After a fine Friday, and a foggy but dry start to Saturday, the rain moved in during practice for Moto2, and increased in intensity for qualifying, varying on and off during MotoGP FP4 and then the two qualifying sessions.
Tomorrow will most likely be dry, though there are threats of a very light rain at various points throughout the day.
Then again, we are at Silverstone in September. It can be hot and sunny, or cold, wet, and windy, sometimes all on the same day. But, add a wet qualifying to the rain in Assen, the Sachsenring, and Brno, and the weather is having a serious effect on the championship. Saturday was no exception.
With FP4 wet, the MotoGP grid lost its main practice session, where the teams work solely on the race without worrying about whether they would get through to Q2 or not. But the session was useful nonetheless. Michelin had brought three different front wet tires, and a couple of wet compounds for the rear.
Wets Working Well
The extra front tire had been in response to criticisms after Brno, led by Andrea Dovizioso. The choice there had been between a very soft tire that was only going to work in a downpour, and a hard tire that would hold together when the track started to dry, but was borderline when the track was still very wet.
At Silverstone, Michelin has brought an intermediate compound, which is good for when the standing water disappears, but there is still no sign of a dry line forming.
Feedback for the front tire was overwhelmingly positive, with several riders praising the feel and durability of both the soft and the medium wet tire. The rear tire, on the other hand, was universally panned: The tire had very little grip, with several riders comparing it unfavorably to an iceberg.
“On rear tires, with less water it was much better grip but then with more water everybody was struggling and we had many crashes of the rear,” Marc Márquez told reporters. “Like riding on ice,” several riders said.
The lack of rear grip was a contributing factor in a number of crashes in the wet, the rear not hooking up under braking. Eugene Laverty described it as being “too snappy” when you pick the bike up, making it easy to cause a crash.
Robbed of Pole
Laverty had far harsher words for his tire technician, however. “For some reason the Michelin technician changed the tire pressure,” a quietly seething Irishman told us. Michelin tech reduced the tire pressure, in an attempt to cope with the heavier rain expected after Q1.
“It went completely the wrong way, against my orders really. It was a disaster. That’s why I crashed. The bike as it was on Q1, everything was perfect. Then in Q2 it was a f***ing disaster. Everywhere, the tire was not keeping its shape.”
The error had cost him a pole position, Laverty was convinced. Sixth was his best qualifying position in Grand Prix racing, yet he was far from happy with the result. He could have had so much more.
“With the bike we had in Q1 there was a pole position today,” Laverty said. “We lost a good shot at it. You don’t get so many chances like that.” That’s why he was so angry about the whole situation.
“When it’s wet we know that we can really be up there amongst them. It really levels the playing field. I can get in among guys like Rossi and Marquez. I can’t get near them in the dry.”
Could Laverty really have gotten pole? He would have had to beat the astounding time set by Cal Crutchlow, and Crutchlow believed he had something extra. “I made two mistakes in my first two sectors,” Crutchlow said.
When he saw riders up on him after the first two sectors, he knew he would be able to improve there, if he needed to push for another fast lap. He didn’t, and his first attempt was good enough.
Fast, First
The way Crutchlow got his pole went against the grain in the wet. The LCR Honda rider went in for a fast lap early, and set a time that would not be matched.
Indeed, at the time he set it, he was over three seconds faster than anyone else. Nearly a second of that advantage remained by the end of the session, enough for him to add a pole to his recent victory.
While Crutchlow was fast early, the other riders needed time to get up to speed. The soft rear wet tire was a little too hard, needing a few laps to get some temperature into it. That was easier for some riders than for others.
Dani Pedrosa only really managed to get heat into the tire by the end of the session, while others managed a lap or two earlier. Crutchlow had managed by pushing hard, and at the right time, when the track was at its driest (or rather, at its least wet).
His risk-taking was rewarded by the third pole of his career, in front of his home crowd.
The Englishman was pleased to be able to get the sport some attention at his home round, and was positively humbled by the reception he had been given after winning Britain’s first premier class race for 35 years at Brno.
“I’m just glad they’re here watching motorcycle racing. It’s nice for people to be in Britain watching what we believe is the best sport in the world, and enjoying it. If they have their own guys that they support, that’s fine. But I really, really appreciate the reception I got.”
FP4, The Session That Has More
The weather may have helped Crutchlow secure pole, but a more important effect was the loss of FP4. The final session of free practice has become crucial to honing a perfect setup, as it is the only session which has no impact on entry into Q2.
In that session, riders make long runs in race trim, and gather the data needed to choose the tire they will race on. After a wet FP4, race tires will be a gamble with several options still open.
The biggest problem is that nobody has done more than ten or twelve laps on a rear tire, and tires are starting to show big drops after five or six laps. The gamble riders have to take is whether they think they can get away early on a soft tire, then manage the damage through the remaining fifteen laps or so.
Or do they opt for the hard tire, and hope a more consistent pace in the second half of the race will allow them to reel in the early escapees on the soft tire. Without putting race distance on a tire, it is hard to know how it will react, and do the math on the various scenarios.
The front tire is also an issue. Both the Yamahas and the Hondas were mulling over the medium tire, though coming at it from opposite ends of the spectrum. For the Hondas, they were hoping it would last and give extra grip in the early laps.
For the Yamahas, they wanted it to give grip all race, as the soft front does not look like being able to last the race. The Suzukis are closer to the Yamahas in their choice, while the Ducatis are strange, favoring the soft rear, despite the horsepower.
Extra horsepower could become a liability later in the race. “I looked at some of the lap times in FP3,” Eugene Laverty said. “It seemed the guys that kept their pace better are the guys that dropped their power. The Aprilias really kept their pace.”
Though the Aprilias are unlikely to win, it could be a chance for Stefan Bradl and Alvaro Bautista to finish much further up the order than normal. Sometimes, being 30 horsepower down on the field can help.
Caveat Marquez
In terms of FP3 consistency, it was Marc Márquez who stood out. The Repsol Honda rider posted a string of laps in the low 2’02s, a pace that nobody could match. He had found some extra speed with set up changes overnight, which also gave him consistency.
Behind Márquez, Cal Crutchlow looks strongest, punching in mid 2’02s with real regularity. But Valentino Rossi, Maverick Viñales and Andrea Iannone are not far behind, a tenth or two off the pace of Márquez.
What this means in the race remains to be seen. There have been no long runs during practice, and the riders are hoping for a bit of extra temperature during morning warm up, to be able to do some tire testing.
Whether they will get that remains uncertain. The weather looks set to be better than on Saturday, but still with a small chance of some very light showers from time to time. Water on the track would slow it down a lot, and what effect that would have on tire choice remains to be seen.
One rider who did make an impression was Alex Lowes, stepping in for the injured Bradley Smith in the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha team. Lowes has built speed from session to session, cutting the gap to the front by three seconds already.
He ended qualifying just behind his teammate, and was ahead of him in a wet FP4, also just a second behind Valentino Rossi.
Will Lowes help change minds in the paddock about WorldSBK riders? He has clearly turned a few heads, but the MotoGP paddock’s obstinate prejudice against riders from outside the series remains intact.
Yes, Lowes is fast, one team manager told me. But age remained an issue, as it does with all WorldSBK riders. Of the fast men in World Superbikes, only Michael van der Mark and Alex Lowes are anywhere near young enough for teams to consider them.
Sponsors look to the Moto2 grid for the next batch of talent. That is to the detriment of MotoGP, WorldSBK, and the sport in general.
Moto2 and Moto3, Lowes vs. Bendsneyder
In the Moto2 class, Sam Lowes made it two British poles at their home Grand Prix. The Englishman has been impressive from the start of the weekend, leading every session (and no doubt helped by other Moto2 riders losing time due to the conditions).
It is hard to believe anyone can stand in his way at Silverstone this year. That will be crucial, for he needs to start identifying chinks in Johann Zarco’s armor. So far, no luck.
As for Moto3, after Jorge Navarro dominated all three free practices, the Spaniard tumbled down the order in qualifying. Navarro must launch his charge from eighteenth spot on the grid, while championship leader Brad Binder sits in fourth.
Binder has ridden solidly so far this weekend, much as he has all season. The KTM suffers more over the bumps than the Honda and the Mahindra, but Binder has been quick both wet and dry.
Big Bad Bo
His fourth place was helped by his teammate, Bo Bendsneyder, in two different ways. Firstly, the pair have worked together to help improve each other’s times, with Binder benefiting from Bendsneyder’s strength in the wet.
Secondly, Bendsneyder managed to secure what should have been his first front row start on Saturday, setting the third fastest time. But a run in with other riders saw him go too slowly on Friday, meaning he will start down in eight instead of third.
That puts him behind Brad Binder, who moves up to fourth, but still ahead of Navarro in eighteenth.
Bendsneyder’s penalty could be judged harsh, but it was a consequence of the early part of his rookie year. In the beginning, the Dutchman spent a lot of time hanging around waiting for a tow, and fell foul of the rule requiring riders to stay within 107% of each sector.
Since the summer break, Bendsneyder has changed his training regime, and also changed his attitude, which is starting to pay off handsomely. Bendsneyder is spending more time trying to do fast laps on his own, so he can understand his pace.
But from time to time, he still gets caught in traffic, and slows up to try to let them past. That is how he incurred the penalty this time.
With Bendsneyder competitive, the foundations of a very solid field for 2017 has been laid. Bendsneyder joins Niccolo Bulega, Fabio Di Giannantonio, Joan Mir, Aron Canet, and Khairul Pawi as fast rookies in Moto3. There are rich and spectacular races to look forward to.
Photo: © 2016 Tony Goldsmith / www.tonygoldsmith.net – All Rights Reserved
This article was originally published on MotoMatters, and is republished here on Asphalt & Rubber with permission by the author.
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