Done and dusted, the EICMA show in Milan is the biggest trade event in the motorcycle industry, and each year we see dozens and dozens of machines debut in Italy, with much fanfare.
With the bevy of new model releases that occur though, it is easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees. So, we are going to break down the big headlines and moments from this new bike season for you, starting with one of our most talked about brands: Ducati.
Ducati traditionally starts off the EICMA festivities, hosting a pre-event somewhere in Milan days before EICMA. The day of this launch seems to get pushed back further and further each year, as other brands have jockeyed for position, and so this year’s pre-event event was held on the Sunday before EICMA.
To its credit, Ducati does EICMA right, and the Italian company has honed to perfection the balance between of hosting a live event for gathered press and VIPs that is also suitable and entertaining enough to be broadcast live on Italian TV and across the internet.
The EICMA show unveiling might be geared now for mainstream consumption, but for those in the industry there are still some valuable inferences to learn from what is said…and what isn’t said.
First Up, What Was Said
The belle of Ducati’s EICMA ball was undoubtedly the Panigale V4 R. This is a model that we have been expecting, ever since the Panigale V4 debuted last year in its base model and “S” model trim levels.
We knew Ducati would make a big fuss with the Panigale V4 R, but no one expected how loudly of a statement that the Italian brand would make with this 217hp (162 kW) machine…especially with the 231hp power figure when the race exhaust is installed.
Truly a race bike with lights (and winglets), the Panigale V4 R has one mission: to win the World Superbike Championship. To do this, Ducati is taking advantage of the WorldSBK rulebook, which has all but begged competing manufacturers to create homologation specials.
Brands have taken advantage of this new rule structure with varying degrees of commitment, but Ducati is the first brand that we have seen to go “all in” on this concept. Winglets feature on the Panigale V4 R, as they have to, in order for the WorldSBK team to use them.
The rev limit is in the stratosphere, at 16,500 rpm, which stems from a fully built V4 engine. To match that performance, there will be an equally astonishing price tag: $40,000 in the USA / €40,000 in Europe, which is again at the very limit of the WorldSBK homologation rules for superbike machines.
Ducati needs only to make 500 units of the Panigale V4 R available for purchase of the next two years, in order to meet homologation requirements, which is certainly an attainable goal for the Italian brand.
The Ducati Panigale V4 R ushers in a new racing era for the Italian brand, with its four-cylinder engine, but it also ushers in a new racing era for WorldSBK. I believe over the next few seasons we will see more manufacturers following Ducati’s lead with €40,000 homologation specials.
I also believe that the superbike category is about to become the exotic supercar equivalent is always should have been, instead of the attainable consumer segment it was for so very long. It makes sense for this to occur, no?
If the superbike is the sports car equivalent for the motorcycle industry, then surely the performance, quantity, and pricing should follow that method? The motorcycle industry has ignored the basics of the demand curve, selling Ferraris like they were Miatas. This needs to stop.
The sport bike market isn’t dead, it is just headed for a market correction. Ducati is = the first brand to realize this reality and to build a bike that suitably recognizes the marketplace and the realities of production racing. Gone are the days of sub-$20,000 superbike motorcycles. Here comes the next golden era of superbike machines, mark my words.
Ok, Now What Wasn’t Said
While the Panigale V4 R certainly grabbed our attention, it was what Ducati didn’t talk about at EICMA that has our interest. For starters, let’s look at the models unveiled, and ask which machine is going to drive sales for the Italian brand?
We were surprised to see that the Ducati Diavel 1260 was the machine that got the most traffic for Asphalt & Rubber during the EICMA show, just beating out the Panigale V4 R. That probably bodes well for the cruiser model, but will it translate into sales? Can it carry the brand?
The Ducati Hypermotard 950 looks very strong, and we can’t wait to ride this machine. I just sold my Ducati Hypermotard 939 SP, which was one of the most fun bikes I’ve ever had the pleasure to ride. It is not without its flaws, however, and the 950 model seems to address those issues. But, the Hypermotard was never a strong seller for Ducati…
There are effectively no new Scramblers for 2019, just a modest refresh, which surprised us. This wasn’t what our spies had led us to expect. Mea culpa.
The rest of the lineup is mid-cycle though, and while it seems the 2020 model year could bear out some new machines ready for the Euro5 switchover, I look at the 2019 model lineup, and wonder where Ducati’s sales growth is going to be driven from.
I don’t see it, and that worries me.
The First Rule of 2018 Sales Is That We Don’t Talk About 2018 Sales
I worry about sales for 2019 because of the sales from the 2018. Normally during the EICMA presentation, Ducati touts is record sales growth. This wasn’t the case this year.
Now recently, that growth has been more honestly a plateau, and who knows what fuzzy math has kept it there, but for the 2018 year I expect to see Ducati admit that its sales are down by a real margin.
The company’s Q3 2018 sales were released right before EICMA, and they went without mention at Milan. For those who wonder, Ducati sales are down 6.3% worldwide.
The company’s bike sales are down across the model range, with only the supersport segment showing growth, likely from the new Panigale V4 superbike. Talking to dealers in the United States though, this model has underwhelmed compared to previous editions, which certainly has nothing to do with the quality of the product.
Ducati’s performance in the United States is certainly an integral component to the company’s overall lackluster position, with the motorcycle market in the United States continuing to shrink, despite seeing sales rebound across the pond in Europe.
The DNA of Ducati North America
The market conditions in North America certainly are not favorable, but there is another narrative perhaps operating here. By our last count (Q1 & Q2), Ducati sales in the United States were down 12% compared to last year.
Ducati is on pace to lose more in sales than the national average for motorcycle brands, and more importantly, our sources tell us that the American subsidiary is on track to post a sizable negative net income figure for the first time in almost a decade.
It is hard to fathom this outcome, considering the new models for the year. The Multistrada 1260, Ducati Panigale V4, and Ducati Scrambler 1100 are all machines that fit into categories that the USA defines.
But then again, looking back on the year, the only memorable event that Ducati North America undertook was the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb – one of the least friendly events for media and spectators alike, and certainly a race that holds little prestige in its domestic market.
Furthermore, I can tell you as a publisher, Ducati North America has all but closed its marketing department to endemic media for the past several years, instead focusing its limited resources on things like product placements in movies like CHiPs.
It is hard to pin down where the Ducati North America’s troubles come from, though we know that turnover at the company has been extraordinarily high since the arrival of Ducati North America CEO Jason Chinnock.
Where Do We See Ducati in 2019?
From a racing perspective, 2019 is going to be a fantastic year for Ducati Corse. The Italian company is going to be a force in the World Superbike Championship, and in MotoGP, the team continues to be the only real answer to the combination of Marc Marquez and Repsol Honda.
Having yet to ride the machine, I would still hazard the opinion that the Panigale V4 R is the best superbike ever to come from the Borgo Panigale factory, which keeps Ducati’s performance heritage well looked after.
I am intrigued by bikes like the Diavel 1260 and the Hypermotard 950, but I am not sure where the brand is headed. I continuously find myself less interested in the company’s two-wheeled offerings.
Maybe it says something that the company’s rebadged electric mountain bike is one of my favorite releases from EICMA? And then, there are rumors that once again Ducati is on the market to be sold…
Photo: Ducati
As always, Asphalt & Rubber will be covering all the new bikes debuting at EICMA this year. Be sure to follow our coverage for the most recent news and photos.
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