Long time readers of Asphalt & Rubber will surely know that I have tough criticisms regarding the American Motorcyclist Association (AMA). As the leading organization to represent motorcyclists and to co-ordinate our efforts and thoughts to policy makers, industry stakeholders, and the public at large, I often find the AMA’s actions (or lack thereof) to be wanting.
Nothing illustrates this better than the AMA’s policy regarding helmet laws, where one side of the AMA’s mouth touts how the organization is against any sort mandatory helmet laws being passed in the USA, while the other corner of the mouth preaches that all motorcyclists should wear a helmet when they ride a motorcycle.
The issue is an example of how the AMA is held hostage by motorcycling’s libertarian population, and by catering to this vocal group’s whims, this organization that is supposed to represent all motorcyclists ends up alienating the very people it is supposed to serve.
It is a great metaphor for how the motorcycle industry operates as a whole in the United States, and while the industry is starting to realize that it needs to cater to members of the population who aren’t just old, white, male, or politically conservative, the AMA has been slow to get with the program.
If you talk to the AMA about this topic, they would say that they carefully listen to and poll their membership to see what issues concern them, and then they act accordingly.
This is the definition of reactionary leadership (which I would argue is an oxymoronic term), whereas real and true leadership would have a concise perspective on what the correct route forward is on an issue, and lead its congregation down that path.
For an organization that is supposed to represent the best interests of motorcyclists, the AMA has lost its path in many ways, and the growing struggle to pass lane-sharing in the United States (another hot-topic for me) is a great example of how ineffective this organization is in its efforts.
To put it shortly, the AMA is not an organization that represents me as a motorcyclist, and I have made a conscious decision not to join its ranks because of it. Your mileage may vary on this issue, and that is fine too.
I will concede that there is very strong argument to be made about how one has to “be the change” in an organization like the AMA, and it won’t change unless people like myself join the AMA’s ranks. There is a weird paradox to this debate, but alas I digress and we can save it for another time.
What reinforces the debate for me though are recent actions like the open letter just published by AMA President Rob Dingman, where Mr. Dingman encouraged motorcyclists to get out and ride during these times of social distancing because of the coronavirus
The letter is a long form of a social media meme, which I am sure you have all seen by now. On its face, riding a motorcycle does seem like the perfect solution to our social distancing lifestyle. Motorcycles are quite literally turn-key social distancing machines.
But, I read Dingman’s letter much differently, as I am sure many of you have guessed by my short rebuttal attached to that story. I see Dingman’s words as being less benign, less altruistic, and less grounded in good fun. Let me explain.
Before we get going, ask yourself for a moment, why. Why is the President of the American Motorcyclist Association writing an open letter to the two-wheeled masses, encouraging them to ride their motorcycles right now?
Consider for a second the financial slaughtering that is occurring outside the motorcycle industry – just take a look at the stock market over the past month, if you don’t know what I mean.
Consider too the state of the motorcycle industry itself, before the coronavirus. By all accounts, 2020 was going to be another lackluster year for motorcycle sales in the United States.
Now after the coronavirus has hit our shores? We see factories across Europe shutting down, China is virtually frozen, and time will tell how hard the US gets hit, but estimates get worse each day, not better.
With service workers getting laid off as business are forced to close down, there is going to be a real dollars and cents cost to the US economy in 2020 when it comes to discretionary consumer spending, and the motorcycle industry is going to feel it in a big, big way.
I want to explore this issue more in another story, and I am still gathering my research on the topic, but here is a preview of my thoughts.
I suspect we will see a major OEM close its operations in the United States. I would place money on it being a Japanese brand.
We will see a double-digit drop in sales for this year, especially as dealers miss their window selling motorcycles to customers in the spring. I am giving Harley-Davidson a 50/50 chance on surviving without a bailout, though I do believe a bailout will come.
Parts for motorcycles are going to dry up as suppliers from Asia and Europe keep their assembly lines closed, and this will impact after-sales numbers, and the ability for OEMs to ramp up production once they reopen their doors.
2019 model year motorcycles will be marked at prices that are at a steep loss within a few months, and don’t expect to see any of the 2020 models slated for release this year until much later in the calendar…but more likely in 2021. Also, I think MotoGP will run closer to 13 races than 20 this “season” – which will likely extend into next year as well.
For all intents and purposes, the motorcycle industry for 2020 is going to be put on hold. Let that sink in for a moment.
I am surely not the only person in the motorcycle industry that sees what is coming down the pipe. Anyone with national sales data from the last 30 days surely knows this information too, and they can see also the tsunami that is coming way out in the distance of the calm ocean.
So, I will ask you again: why is the President of the AMA asking all motorcyclists to go out and ride?
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