Is four tenths of a second a realistic gap between first and second on the grid at the Red Bull Ring in Spielberg? It doesn’t represent the real strength of the riders on the first two or three rows. The gap separating the group capable of battling for the podium is a couple of tenths, give or take.
And it doesn’t represent a realistic pace around the Red Bull Ring. Sure, you can flirt with laps of 1’22 for a lap or two, but to do so requires burning through your tires at an unsustainable rate.
You can get down to the mid to low 1’23s on both the soft and medium rear Michelins, but to do so requires you to stress the edge of the tire to the extreme, overheating it and wearing it out in the space of 5 laps, not the 28 laps the race will last.
The soft will do race distance – Michelin expect most riders to be choosing between the medium and the soft rears – but it takes a little more careful management.
If anything is going to be a limiting factor at the Red Bull Ring, it is going to be fuel. Spend 28 laps with the throttle wide open for most of the lap, and you burn through gasoline at a rate of knots.